"We are too prone to error to make unequivocal statements about someone else’s damnation". This was a statement in a friends blog, it think it so true.
I was reading an article yesterday about how natural disasters are to be seen as God's condemnation. I think when God decides to do use nature to punish evil, we will all know about it. We are exhorted in the NT to "overcome evil with good", and that its "his kindness that leads us to repentance". I think that is where God is this side of eternity.
In the OT as physical blessing was seen as being in Gods favor, calamity and disaster were viewed as God taking vengeance on evil people and actions. This gave people the "heads up" to repent. Even then God relented from sending calamity. It was fairly cut and dried.
Nowadays, we are far removed from "appeasing the gods", we even medicate ourselves when we can't cope with the evil within and without.
I don't know whether God has moved on in his punishments, like a parent who tries to figure what works/what doesn't to get our attention, but natural disasters as messages of condemnation account for as much as Chicken Little saying "the sky is falling". Personally, I think God has moved on...unfortunately we haven't.